This is the third list of potential disruptive factors that could influence the Canadian Public Service over the next decade or so. See the previous blog for the first set of three and Seven Days of Disruption blog for the entire set. These are in support of November 22, 2017 FMI Conference – Disruptive Writers.
- Depopulation Waves (2015)
- Evolving Artificial Intelligence (2015)
- Geopolitical Realignment (2015) and Continued Global Violent Extremism (2015)
Adapted from A.T. Kearney 2015: As global population growth slows, some countries’ populations are already shrinking. Global population growth is decelerating from 1.8 percent in the 1980-2000 to just 1.1 percent in the 2000–2025 period. The three main drivers of depopulation are aging, international migration, and high mortality and morbidity rates. Depopulation presents a range of challenges including labor shortages, weaker consumer demand, lower tax revenue and higher health care costs as the greying population lives longer.
Editor Note: Additional impacts to the above are a massive transfer of wealth from the baby boomers to their children. Of course this wealth is only of value if the economic and social structures continue to exist to support them.
Evolving Artificial Intelligence
Adapted from A.T. Kearney 2015: Artificial intelligence (AI) is already used in sectors as distinct as finance, journalism, and engineering, and it continues to find new applications. For instance, AI is used in security trading dark pools, writes breaking news articles, and dominates humans in many games (such as chess, backgammon, Scrabble, and even Jeopardy!). It is also being leveraged in an attempt to cure cancer (as part of the Big Mechanism project being run by the Pentagon’s Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency [DARPA]) and make lethal decisions on the battlefield through its integration into the weapons systems of several countries. Increasing investment in deep learning technologies will enable AI to expand to even more sectors.
Editor Note: This topic has been explored in detail both in the business press and in fiction (anyone remember HAL from the movie 2001: A Space Odyssey?).
Geopolitical Realignment and Continued Global Violent Extremism
Adapted from A.T. Kearney 2015: Global economic and political power is increasingly diffuse thus complicating leadership efforts within the international system. In the years since the Global Financial Crisis, the United States and other Western powers have receded from the global stage while rising regional powers have increased their political influence. These changing power dynamics are decreasing the effectiveness of global political institutions. These institutions have transformed little in the past 60+ years and are failing to accommodate shifting power dynamics. Global arms spending, has grown in recent years after decades of decline following the conclusion of the Cold War.
Today’s most pressing issues, including security concerns, are global in nature but cooperation has proved increasingly difficult in the current international environment. The international security architecture has been slow to address global terrorism and transnational organized crime. Moreover, lack of trust in governments and businesses complicates international efforts to prevent cyber threats.
Editor Note: Canada has been a direct participant and beneficiary in the international movements of the second half of the 20th century. From being a founding member of the United Nations and NATO to conceiving the concept of peace keepers, Canada has been described as ‘punch above its weight’ in international affairs.