Managed Serendipity

Don’t you hate it, you think you have a brilliant original thought and that darn Google shows you that numerous people have thought it before you!  Such is the case of one of my Phrankisms, ‘Managed Serendipity‘.  In this case, it is okay because through fortunate happenstance I can potentially work on a better definition.

Set of snow shoes coming off the trail on to ashphalt.
Off the snow track

Definition of Managed Serendipity

The ability to respond to and take advantage of an opportunity in the future.  The catch is that you don’t know what attributes will be called on by that opportunity or even if such a chance will occur in the future.  

As the name implies, there are two parts to the concept. Managed is what you can actively do to either generate opportunities or capitalize on them as they appear.  Serendipity is entirely beyond your control, it is fate, fortune, chance or God’s will.  You can only react to serendipity not control it.  This is not a new concept by any stretch.  Here are three examples:

  • In the fields of observation chance favors the prepared mind. (translated from Louis Pasteur from: Dans les champs de l’observation le hasard ne favorise que les esprits préparés); source: Wikiquote.
  • Optionality is the ability to switch from one course of action to another thus taking advantage of uncertainty and changing circumstances (adapted from ‘Antifragile
    Things That Gain From Disorder’, Nicholas Taleb).
  • Life is what happens to you while you’re busy making other plans.  Attributed to John Lennon but based on a Readers Digest quote from 1957 (courtesy Quote Investigator).

Examples of Managed Serendipity

The best way to foster Managed Serendipity is education.  Graduating from High School, College or an apprenticeship gives you more options then dropping out in Grade 10.  Beyond formal education, life choices and personal investments are part of Managed Serendipity.  This includes having at your disposal a wide variety of skills and experiences that initially seem only relevant in one narrow circumstance.

By way of an example, I did the lay up and editing for the 7th edition of the Waskahegan Trail Guide.  That experience gave me a much better appreciation for desktop publishing, layout and production of complex documents – skills that have tipped job interviews in my favour or allowed me to do more complex volunteer activities – such as blogging on Managed Serendipity (yeah)!

Limitations to Managed Serendipity

To start, one’s own health.  Being free of self-inflicted health limitations (e.g. excessive weight, poor physical conditioning, mental well-being, etc.) better positions you to seize an opportunity.  Certainly family circumstances can impact Managed Serendipity.  For example, caring for your young children limits your work opportunities – but also provides you with infinite joy and a core reason for your existence, a very fair trade off.  At the same time, being the primary care giver for an aged parent or spouse, shrinks your world (but such are the burdens borne with love).

Notwithstanding family restrictions, people fail to recognize an opportunity when it presents itself.  To this, I have four maxims I use in my life so as to recognize Managed Serendipity:

  1. Always answer the door when opportunity knocks.
  2. Remember opportunity typically knocks when you are in the bathtub.
  3. Never negotiate on the other party’s behalf.
  4. Manage to the downside.
  5. Pay yourself now for the future maybes.

Answer When Opportunity knocks

Opportunity is constantly knocking.  It may be something as obvious as a head hunter or less straightforward as your daughter’s soccer coach asking if you can edit a newsletter – and therefore learn new software.  At least hear what opportunity has to sell before closing the door and …

Opportunity Knocks When You are in the Bath

Opportunity seldom knocks when it is convenient for you.  Sometimes Managed Serendipity means leaving a good paying government job on Friday and boarding a plan on Sunday to fly to and work in Munich German for 18 months (hey it happens, trust me).  After hearing opportunity out, remember that timing is never convenient or circumstances are easy.  Of course you need to balance this against other personal circumstances (young children, aged parents, etc.).

Never negotiate on the other party’s behalf.

It is amazing how often there are circumstances in which a person will not propose an option in negotiations because they think the other party will reject it.  For example, you approach your employer and say, ‘hey, can I take a leave of absence and go work in Vienna for year?‘  Your problem ends in asking the question and starts upon hearing the response.  Their problem starts on hearing the question and ends formulating the response.  Don’t confuse your problems (asking) with their problems (responding).

You may have young children and a chance to work abroad appears.  DON’T forego this opportunity because traveling with a six year old is hard.  DO eliminate the opportunity if travelling with your precious child is unduly dangerous.

Life, Gravy Lumps and All

When presented with a situation, can you accept the worst case scenario?  Finding a new job, accepting rejection or perhaps receiving a ‘no’ answer?  If the answer is yes then you have managed to the downside. If you can live with worst case scenario then everything else is gravy. Sometimes the gravy is lumpy, perhaps separating … but heck, it is still GRAVY!

Pay Yourself Now for Future Maybes

Set yourself up for future possibilities by learning, learning and experiencing.  Take the opportunity to edit the kids soccer newsletter because in the future you may be building websites with that experience.  Learn that new language because you may visit or work there – or for someone you might meet in the classroom.  In other words, increase the chances the opportunity will come and knock at your door… but pay yourself while you are doing it.

A new thing learned may lead to something in the future – but probably it will not.  Therefore, enjoy what you are doing for its own merits in the here in now.  This is paying yourself first.  You can’t force the serendipity part –  you can only manage it.

Ying, Yang and the Border

Managed Serendipity is like the Asian concept of Ying and Yang.  They are complementary, distinct and inter-related.  To me the most interesting thing about Ying and Yang is not the two tadpole’esque features – it is border or interface between them.  As in any border, there is danger between safety/adventure or risk/opportunity.  

I wish I could say that seizing an opportunity is without risk but that is not the case.  An aging parent’s health may deteriorate with out your care, your young child may feel displaced between cultures and you may not have a job waiting for you upon your return – risks.  Of course you may also feel refreshed and a better care giver upon your return, your child is stronger working through cultural displacement and you landed an even better job – opportunities.

Ying-Yang courtesy of Wikipedia (used via creative commons).

As Stephen Covey talks about in ‘The 7 Habits of Highly Effective People; Powerful Lessons in Personal Change’: Nobody ever laid on their death-bed and wished they had spent more time at the office.  In parallel, no one ever laid peacefully in the death-bed content they stayed in the bath tub despite incessant knocking.

Can We Monetizing Government Services?

On November 7, I attended a session put on by the Canadian Institute called “Government Connects“. All levels of government spoke about digital transformation of their services.  One of the speakers was the boss of all Alberta Public Servants, Marcia Nelson.  Marcia did a great job discussing what the Government of Alberta is doing in moving its services online.  Certainly Digital Government is the nirvana for most governments as they see cyberspace as being a cheaper, faster and more effective way to deliver more services to citizens.

The User as the Product

Marcia, and many of the speakers, talked about the expectations of citizens relative to their other digital experiences.  For example the ease to create a Facebook account, the functionality available via a GMail account or how a LinkedIn profile is now almost as important as a resume or a business card.  The question from Marcia, and others was ‘how can governments compete with these products?‘.

The other side of these services is a profit motive.  Facebook makes it easy to set up a profile so it can target you with advertisements. Gmail wants you as an email client so it can scan your email and target its advertisement.  LinkedIn wants you to buy a premium membership or at least get your eyeballs on its advertisements.  All of the above are examples of monetizing you as a user into becoming their product.  Assuming informed consent, there is nothing wrong with monetization.  It is an economic transaction in which a slice of your privacy is exchanged for some really good services (like watching cat videos on Facebook just saying).

The Digital Government Disadvantage

So where does government fit into this?  Firstly there is the challenge of resources.  A quick scan of the September 2016 quarterly results of Facebook shows they have about $10.6USD Billion in physical and intangible assets*.  Included in this number is $5.1USD Billion of network and computer software assets (physical) in addition to $1.7USD Billion in technologies and patents (intangible).  In other words, Facebook has excellent technical infrastructure to offer a premium product for free to users.  And if they don’t have a good product now, their $30.3USD Billion in current assets (e.g. cash, securities, etc.) can be used to buy that good product.

* Note, for those accounting weenies out there, an interesting item they have on their balance sheet is ‘Acquired users’.  I could not readily find a definition for this term but it appears that the users are really the Product!

Pity someone like the Government of Alberta (GoA).  A $50 billion a year organization in which an estimated 2.5%, over $1 billion, is spent annually on Information Management and Technology (IMT) (adapted from: GoA IMT Plan, 2016 – 2021, p. 4). From the GoA’s most recent financial statements, they have $4.4CAD Billion (about $3USD Billion) of computer assets – hey not bad – of which 78% of is fully depreciated (e.g. over 5 years old) – YIKES! (adapted from GoA 2015-16 Financial Statements, p. 63).

Beyond relying on old technology, the GoA has to do a lot more than Facebook.  While Facebook can focus on social media, the GoA needs to run registry systems (e.g. vital statistics, land titles or drivers licenses), health systems (e.g. immunization, medical records), education (K-12, student finance, apprenticeship certificates), business (collect taxes/royalties/fines) and human social functions (tracking children in foster care, seniors or homelessness).

The above is not a new story but it is worth repeating every now and then that governments do things that no one else wants to with a tiny fraction of the resources of private industry.  Governments must also build and run systems that have almost no tolerance for failure.

Risk and Skin in the Game

To the last point, risk, this is where government is at a further disadvantage.  The original investors in FaceBook backed a winner.  Those who put money in to Myspace, Friendster or DIGG did not fare so well (huh, never heard of some of these, check out the grave yard of failed social media infographic from the Search Engine Journal January 25, 2013).  Nicholas Taleb calls investors (win or lose) people with ‘Skin in the Game‘ from his book Anti-Fragile.  In contrast, public servants never have skin in the game.  We are always spending other people’s money and our fantastically worst case for abject failure is forced retirement or perhaps being fired – maybe.

In other words, governments have both an advantage and disadvantage around risk. The individuals involved do not have personal risk (advantage) but the organizations also lack the mind focusing benefit of the ‘terror of failure’ (disadvantage).

The Monetization Continuum and How Can Governments ‘Compete’

The reality is that Governments can’t and shouldn’t compete with the Facebook’s of the world.  Creating a bleeding edge user experience would be an inexcusable use of public funds and without the terror of failure would not likely be successful anyway.

But because thought exercises can lead to innovation, I am proposing the ‘Monetization Continuum‘ for governments; a government simply needs to pick a point on a line.  At one end (generally status quo) is ‘Mind and Accept the Gap‘ at the other is ‘Full Monetization‘ with other options falling between these two.  Definitions are provided below as well as way points but generally if you are Singapore you may be more comfortable having McDonald’s ads on your obesity website.  If you are at the other extreme – well this is where Minding the Gap comes in.

Monetization Continuum

End PointsDefinitionExamples
Mind and Accept the GapGovernments acknowledge that they will lag and explain why to their citizens. Periodically, governments leap-frog into a stronger position.Status Quo
MonetizeFund digital government through ad, premium memberships or sponsorship revenue.

 

Premium services could even be tax-deductible!

Faster border crossing via Nexus.

On the Subject of Not Likely

The reality is that governments will and should never monetize their services.  There is a slippery slope of what is reasonable and in good taste.  Governments have something that Facebook or Google does not have – the coercive powers of taxation and legislation. Perhaps governments does not need to build systems when they can force organizations operating in its jurisdictions to offer the services.  There is a long tradition of this in the telecommunications world, for example.  This would not be monetizing users as products, this would monetizing providers as servants for the public good.  Just a thought.