This is the last list of potential disruptive factors that could influence the Canadian Public Service over the next decade or so.  See the previous blogs for the previous set of disruptions and Seven Days of Disruption blog for the entire set.  These are in support of November 22, 2017 FMI Conference – Disruptive Writers.

• Quebec and Regional Tensions (editor)
• Resource and Commodity Supply, Demand and Price (adapted from 2015)
• Rising storm of populism; Canada and Cultural War in the Age of Trump and the Progressives (adapted from 2016 and editor)

Quebec and Regional Tensions (editor)

A full generation has grown up without ever hearing about Quebec separation, referendums or regional tensions.  Can it last?  The first challenge is geography, Canada is big – very big.  Many Canadians will never visit all of the provinces and territories, how can you sustain a country in which geography conspires against a sense of affiliation.  The next challenge is economics.  Canada has been sustained in the past half century by a wealth transfer from the Western Provinces to the vote rich eastern regions.  Despite multi-billion dollar provincial deficits, Alberta is still a ‘have’ province and will contribute to the ‘have-not’ areas.  Finally there is tribalism or regional identity.  Quebec has been the center of this with two referendums and the 1999 Clarity Act being central activities in the twenty years from 1980 to 2000.  Northern Canada, with the creation of Nunavut, seeks its own path to prosperity.  Atlantic Canada continues to struggle economic although recent mineral discoveries have brightened these prospects. So, will Canada continue to exist and prosper as it moves toward its bicentennial or will it be tore asunder by its size, politics and economics?

Resource and Commodity Supply, Demand and Price

Canada and Cultural War in the Age of Trump

This is the second last list of potential disruptive factors that could influence the Canadian Public Service over the next decade or so.  See the previous blogs for previous disruptions and Seven Days of Disruption blog for the entire set.  These are in support of November 22, 2017 FMI Conference – Disruptive Writers.

• “Islandization” of the global economy (2017), NAFTA Negotiations and the rise of protectionism (editor)
• IT Revolution 2.0 and the Rise of the Machines (adapted from 2015)
• Post Consumerism (adapted from 2016)

“Islandization” (2017), NAFTA Negotiations and the rise of protectionism (editor)

Adapted from A.T. Kearney 2017: After a quarter century of rapid globalization, restrictions on immigration, trade, and other cross-border flows are now increasing. A new phase—which we call “islandization”—has begun, marked by growing levels of nationalism, protectionism, and parochialism. While the United States is at the center of this trend, many of the countries leading the globalization charge are also quietly islandizing, creating a dramatically different operating environment for global businesses and governments.

Editors Note: Returning to the Great Depression, one of its acknowledged causes of its prolongation was the establishment of trade barriers between advanced economies exactly at the time when economic activity was needed the most.  At the same time, exporting jobs and manufacturing skills undermines an economy and a tax base.  In other words trade like most things is something to be managed with no exact ‘pre-set’ value.  Canada is a directly beneficiary of being a trading nation even if most of it goes south to our NAFTA partner.

IT Revolution 2.0 and the Rise of the Machines

Adapted from A.T. Kearney 2015: The Internet of Things (IoT) is a fast-growing constellation of connected “smart devices,” such as smartphones,  self-driving cars,  household appliances, industrial robots and smart electrical grids. With continued dramatic growth in connectivity, these machines increasingly transmit information to one another and take real-world actions without humans in the loop. Beyond gizmos and conveniences, IoT may lead to dramatic change for societies, economies and governments.  For example, if self-driving vehicles take off, what are the regulatory, economic and employment impacts of giving up this human activity?

Editors Note: Industrial robots are an important IoT growth and China is forecasted to become the world’s largest user of industrial robots by 2017.  This means greater competition for manufacturing jobs and industries in Canada.  Beyond productivity, the IoT also contains significant cyber-security and privacy concerns for consumers and citizens.  As a positive, the innovation and productivity gains are central to the miracle of human development we have seen over the past two hundred years.  The Industrial, Green, Fossil Fuel and Information Revolutions have all created greater material wealth for humans… notwithstanding the negative corresponding negative impacts to the planet and our fellow species.  In other words, two hopes: 1) we can manage the rise of the machines to generally improve the human condition and 2) our robot overlords treat us better than we have treated some of our fellow animals and humans.

Post Consumerism

Adapted from A.T. Kearney 2016: Consumer values and preferences in developed markets are shifting toward buying fewer physical goods and valuing experiences over possessions. While this is creating new business opportunities for service providers, it also raises important challenges for traditional consumer products groups and retailers.  Concurrent with this change is the emergence of the Amazon.com who are effectively competing for a shrinking pool of consumption.  The OECD reports that the rate at which member countries consume physical materials has begun to decline and that at present “OECD countries generate 50 percent more economic value per unit of material resources than in 1990.” While this change is generally good for the environment (and likely good for the soul – editor) it may also pose challenges to governments as retail outlets fail and small business retailers cannot compete with either Amazon or online digital experiences.

Editors Note: Remember Abraham Maslow and his hierarchy of needs?  If post-consumerism turns out to be a ‘thing’ it certainly would validate Maslow’s work?  There is some tough sledding though including unwinding a century of modern marketing and an economic structure based on consumption.  Nevertheless our landfills and planet would probably thank us.

What are some of the larger potential disruptive factors that could influence the Canadian Public Service over the next decade or less.  The following three are the first in a list that will be used at the November 22, 2017 FMI Conference – Disruptive Writers.

• Seven Days of Disruption (Initial Blog).
• Accelerating Global Climate Change and the cost to mitigate (2015 and editor)
• Biotechnology: Frankenstein, Super-bugs and Super-cures (adapted from 2016 and editor)
• Canadian Competitiveness and Productivity (editor)

Accelerating Global Climate Change and the Cost to Mitigate

Adapted from A.T. Kearney 2015: Food production, rising sea levels, increased range of tropical diseases and impacts to fragile environments such as the arctic and northern forests are some of the negative impacts identified.  At the same time, Canada could be a net beneficiary as more of its land mass becomes suitable for agriculture and lower cost for exploration of mineral wealth in the arctic.  These are tenuous gains as compared to social and mass population upheavals however.

Editor note: in many ways the past 200+ years of using fossil fuels can be compared to a young person inheriting a vast fortune from an unknown dead relative.  The changes have been both negative and positive.

On the positive side, there are billions of people alive today or who have lived in the past two centuries that would not have lived without the exploitation of fossil fuels.  Fossil fuels have given us a standard of living in which even the poorest Canadian is living better than many past kings or queens.  Hydrocarbons deliver clean water, warm homes, take away sewage, pave our streets, move food to our stores, fix nitrogen out of the air to grow the food and give us miracle materials such as plastics.

However, like a young adult waking up from a massive party we are also noticing that the trust fund is running low.  As well, 200+ years of living with fossil fuels has directly or indirectly killed many of our fellow species, polluted our homes.  The hunt for the fuels have led to corruption and creating vast fortunes in societies that have exported extremism and intolerance of things like women’s rights.

The cost to leave the fossil fuel era is considerable and may not occur in our lifetime.  The reality is that the engineering and technologies to replace an energy dense and convenient storage medium such as gasoline is considerable.  Canada has committed to shutter its coal power plants.  In 2014 this represented approximately 10% of the nation’s total generation nearly all in Western Canada [1].  Assuming these plants are closed by the target date of 2030, 63.6 terrawatt hours of capacity will need to be replaced [2].  Globally, Canada’s coal generation represents 0.67% of the total world generation capacity [3].  Thus the cost of leaving fossil fuels in the ground are not only direct but indirect as we place ourselves at a competitive disadvantage despite being a global powerhouse in energy reserves.

Biotechnology

Adapted from A.T. Kearney 2016: Just four years after its invention, “copy-and-paste” biotechnology is bending the cost and timeline curves for major scientific breakthroughs. CRISPR-Cas9—which stands for “clustered, regularly interspaced short palindromic repeats” and “CRISPR-associated protein number nine”—was discovered in 2012. This biotechnology has the ability to delete, repair, or replace genes, making it a function for genetic manipulation that will allow researchers to do three things more cheaply and effectively than ever before: alter human genetic code, cure diseases, and even create new lifeforms.   Its applications will have far-reaching impacts on a multitude of industries, altering business models, regulatory environments, and consumer demands and preferences worldwide.

Editor’s Note: Bio-technology is one of the things that makes us human even if the technology part has advanced considerably.  10,000 years ago the methods would have included burning forests to plant crops or encourage grazing animals; selecting grains such as wheat, rye or rice; or domesticating the dog, horse or cow.

More recently state sponsored food research was central to of the green revolution of the late 20th century.  Genetically modified food has continued this revolution although with a sense of unease.  Bio-technology promises designer cures for diseases and an improved standard of living for humanity.  The shadow includes Frankenfoods, designer babies and other nightmares from science fiction.  Regulation and a stable civil society is one way to control this.  Another method is to ensure that the work is done in a culture of openness and transparency – something perhaps more difficult if the research leaves Western countries and is taken up in repressive regimes or nations lacking a history of civil discussion.

Canadian Competitiveness

Adapted from the Conference Board of Canada: Canada’s standing on the 2017 Global Competitive Index as issued by World Economic Forum improved one place to 14th.  Switzerland ranks first, followed by the United States, Singapore, the Netherlands, and Germany.  Taxation and government regulation impeded competitiveness while a good K-12 and post-secondary education systems provided an offset.  Canada benefits from efficient labour markets and a sound financial and securities systems.  Canada lacks consistent investment in research and development, has degrading public infrastructure, poor coordination between universities and business and an over-reliance on natural resources.

Editors Note: This subject was discussed at the September 21, 2016 FMI Edmonton Chapter event Fostering Innovation in the Public Service When Money is Tight.