Day 6 – Regions, Resources & Populism

Posted on November 17, 2017 by Frank SAPAA

This is the last list of potential disruptive factors that could influence the Canadian Public Service over the next decade or so. See the previous blogs for the previous set of disruptions and Seven Days of Disruption blog for the entire set. These are in support of November 22, 2017 FMI Conference – Disruptive Writers.

Quebec and Regional Tensions (editor)
Resource and Commodity Supply, Demand and Price (adapted from 2015)
Rising storm of populism; Canada and Cultural War in the Age of Trump and the Progressives (adapted from 2016 and editor)

Quebec and Regional Tensions (editor)

A full generation has grown up without ever hearing about Quebec separation, referendums or regional tensions. Can it last? The first challenge is geography, Canada is big – very big. Many Canadians will never visit all of the provinces and territories, how can you sustain a country in which geography conspires against a sense of affiliation. The next challenge is economics. Canada has been sustained in the past half century by a wealth transfer from the Western Provinces to the vote rich eastern regions. Despite multi-billion dollar provincial deficits, Alberta is still a ‘have’ province and will contribute to the ‘have-not’ areas. Finally there is tribalism or regional identity. Quebec has been the center of this with two referendums and the 1999 Clarity Act being central activities in the twenty years from 1980 to 2000. Northern Canada, with the creation of Nunavut, seeks its own path to prosperity. Atlantic Canada continues to struggle economic although recent mineral discoveries have brightened these prospects. So, will Canada continue to exist and prosper as it moves toward its bicentennial or will it be tore asunder by its size, politics and economics?

Resource and Commodity Supply, Demand and Price

Canada and Cultural War in the Age of Trump

Adapted from A.T. Kearney 2016: A populist, worldwide backlash to globalization and neoliberal economic policies continues to spread in the wake of the Global Financial Crisis due to a broad range of underlying structural issues, from digital information proliferation to wealth inequality. This backlash is creating policy instability and raises the risk of a potentially hostile environment for globalized business models. A.T. Kearney defines populism as a mass political movement that harnesses “the power of the people” to reject the elite and the status quo. Populism is usually concentrated around a charismatic leader, and often includes advocating for more redistributive economic policies—or even illiberal tendencies to concentrate power in a single individual. The impact for governments is navigating protectionist trade partners; volatility in civil, constitutional, policy and regulatory endeavours, and the risk of knee-jerk reactions resulting in the break down of civil society. Compounding this challenge is the ‘dumbing-down’ effect of social media converting civil discussion and complex thought into 144 character sound bits and simple likes and memes.

Editors Note: There is a description that a cultural war is underway in the United States between ‘progressives’ or left and ‘populists’ or right. Hillary Clinton, Bernie Sanders and the Democratic Party are progressives with Sarah Palin and being populists. Generally the left accuse the right as being fascists (for more on how this may be topsy turvy, see: ‘The Big Lie: Exposing the Nazi Roots of the American Left‘) and the right accuses the left of destroying liberal democracy through masked thugs and censorship of institutions such as universities. In Canada we have less of this possibly because our political system allows for a more nuanced reflection of opinions (e.g. we have left of center NDP, right of center Conservatives and the center-left Liberal Parties. Nevertheless, what is the impact of this cultural war coming to Canada and can our democratic institutions survive the battles?

Day 5 – Islandization, IT and Post-Consumerism

Posted on November 16, 2017 by Frank SAPAA

This is the second last list of potential disruptive factors that could influence the Canadian Public Service over the next decade or so. See the previous blogs for previous disruptions and Seven Days of Disruption blog for the entire set. These are in support of November 22, 2017 FMI Conference – Disruptive Writers.

“Islandization” of the global economy (2017), NAFTA Negotiations and the rise of protectionism (editor)
IT Revolution 2.0 and the Rise of the Machines (adapted from 2015)
Post Consumerism (adapted from 2016)

“Islandization” (2017), NAFTA Negotiations and the rise of protectionism (editor)

Adapted from A.T. Kearney 2017: After a quarter century of rapid globalization, restrictions on immigration, trade, and other cross-border flows are now increasing. A new phase—which we call “islandization”—has begun, marked by growing levels of nationalism, protectionism, and parochialism. While the United States is at the center of this trend, many of the countries leading the globalization charge are also quietly islandizing, creating a dramatically different operating environment for global businesses and governments.

Editors Note: Returning to the Great Depression, one of its acknowledged causes of its prolongation was the establishment of trade barriers between advanced economies exactly at the time when economic activity was needed the most. At the same time, exporting jobs and manufacturing skills undermines an economy and a tax base. In other words trade like most things is something to be managed with no exact ‘pre-set’ value. Canada is a directly beneficiary of being a trading nation even if most of it goes south to our NAFTA partner.

IT Revolution 2.0 and the Rise of the Machines

Adapted from A.T. Kearney 2015: The Internet of Things (IoT) is a fast-growing constellation of connected “smart devices,” such as smartphones, self-driving cars, household appliances, industrial robots and smart electrical grids. With continued dramatic growth in connectivity, these machines increasingly transmit information to one another and take real-world actions without humans in the loop. Beyond gizmos and conveniences, IoT may lead to dramatic change for societies, economies and governments. For example, if self-driving vehicles take off, what are the regulatory, economic and employment impacts of giving up this human activity?

Editors Note: Industrial robots are an important IoT growth and China is forecasted to become the world’s largest user of industrial robots by 2017. This means greater competition for manufacturing jobs and industries in Canada. Beyond productivity, the IoT also contains significant cyber-security and privacy concerns for consumers and citizens. As a positive, the innovation and productivity gains are central to the miracle of human development we have seen over the past two hundred years. The Industrial, Green, Fossil Fuel and Information Revolutions have all created greater material wealth for humans… notwithstanding the negative corresponding negative impacts to the planet and our fellow species. In other words, two hopes: 1) we can manage the rise of the machines to generally improve the human condition and 2) our robot overlords treat us better than we have treated some of our fellow animals and humans.

Post Consumerism

Adapted from A.T. Kearney 2016: Consumer values and preferences in developed markets are shifting toward buying fewer physical goods and valuing experiences over possessions. While this is creating new business opportunities for service providers, it also raises important challenges for traditional consumer products groups and retailers. Concurrent with this change is the emergence of the Amazon.com who are effectively competing for a shrinking pool of consumption. The OECD reports that the rate at which member countries consume physical materials has begun to decline and that at present “OECD countries generate 50 percent more economic value per unit of material resources than in 1990.” While this change is generally good for the environment (and likely good for the soul – editor) it may also pose challenges to governments as retail outlets fail and small business retailers cannot compete with either Amazon or online digital experiences.

Editors Note: Remember Abraham Maslow and his hierarchy of needs? If post-consumerism turns out to be a ‘thing’ it certainly would validate Maslow’s work? There is some tough sledding though including unwinding a century of modern marketing and an economic structure based on consumption. Nevertheless our landfills and planet would probably thank us.

Day 4 – Debt, Immigration and First Nations

Posted on November 15, 2017 by Frank SAPAA

This is the fourth list of potential disruptive factors that could influence the Canadian Public Service over the next decade or so. See the previous blog for the first set of three and Seven Days of Disruption blog for the entire set. These are in support of November 22, 2017 FMI Conference – Disruptive Writers.

Growing debt overhang (2017)
Immigration and Changes to the Canadian Values and Characters (editor)
Indigenous Power (editor)

Growing debt Overhang

Adapted from A.T. Kearney 2017: Driven by historically low-interest rates, debt levels around the world have risen dramatically and now stand at all-time highs. These debt obligations are on increasingly shaky ground as a result of both their sheer size and key policy shifts under way in the United States and China. An adjustment—orderly or more likely otherwise—will occur in the near to medium term. Concerns are for debt in governments, corporations and households. Canadian Government total debts is less than its G20 peer countries but still well above 85% of national GDP (source wikipedia). Unfortunately Canada trails its G20 peers in corporate and in particular household debt. Household debt is also worryingly high with Canada at the epicenter of this debt buildup. Canada is among the developed markets in which household debt rose 2 to 3 percentage points in 2016—in large part due to a rise in mortgage lending and housing markets that seem to be overheating. Household debt now stands at over 101 percent of GDP in Canada.

Editors Note: The Great Depression of the 1930’s is often attributed to the accumulation of debt both at a personal and national level. Credit purchase of goods and mortgages were both relatively new financial tools which fueled a rapid expansion of the US economy in the 1920’s. Beyond consumables, the stock market was also a beneficiary of leveraged purchases.

At a national level, Europe was still reeling from the effects of the First World War. The massive allied debt owed to the United States and its unwillingness to forgive this debt made the allies less forgiving in turn for German war debts and reparations. Add in protectionism and an entire house of cards folded with the correction of the stock market in October 1929. Interestingly many of the same conditions have parallels in our own time.

Immigration and Changes to the Canadian Values and Characters (editor)

Canada has been a net beneficiary of immigration since humans first started to leave Africa tens of thousands of years ago. However when most people think of immigration it is not of Bering Straight land bridges but instead of the initial waves of mostly European settlers from the 16th to the end of 20th century. Since the 1970’s, government policies and changing demographics have seen immigration sources move from European sources to being from all parts of the globe.

A greying Canadian population will mean that immigration must continue even to maintain our current population let alone allow from natural growth. Despite a Canadian government policy of multiculturalism, what is the impact of displacing a predominantly Euro-centric population and set of cultural values with a more global set of values? As well, are there risks of a ‘Balkanization’ of Canada such that a Canadian citizen may grow up in an enclave without ever leaving the culture (or perhaps language) of their ancestral home. Are there risks of a loss of Euro-centric values of liberalism and individual freedoms if in migration was attracted to these norms in the first place?

Indigenous Power (editor)

Human colonization of the North American continent started many thousand of years ago with either the current first nations or perhaps even an earlier wave of human migration. Irrespective, the people who make up Canada’s first nations have a long standing claims and association with the land. In many parts of Canada this association was articulated in a series of treaties. The Truth and Reconciliation Commission and more recently the National Inquiry into Missing and Murdered Indigenous Women and Girls are two recent government efforts to make for a better arrangement between Canadian society as a whole and the First Nation segment. For Canadian governments and the larger society, the questions of how to resolve land claims (including competing claims for the same territory), integrating this culture while still maintaining the liberal principles of equality for all. As well, there is the question of what is the end game for all of the players? What does resolution look like and exactly what will it cost to achieve this state?

Day 3 – Greying Population, AI and Extremism

Posted on November 14, 2017 by Frank SAPAA

This is the third list of potential disruptive factors that could influence the Canadian Public Service over the next decade or so. See the previous blog for the first set of three and Seven Days of Disruption blog for the entire set. These are in support of November 22, 2017 FMI Conference – Disruptive Writers.

Depopulation Waves (2015)
Evolving Artificial Intelligence (2015)
Geopolitical Realignment (2015) and Continued Global Violent Extremism (2015)

Depopulation Waves

Adapted from A.T. Kearney 2015: As global population growth slows, some countries’ populations are already shrinking. Global population growth is decelerating from 1.8 percent in the 1980-2000 to just 1.1 percent in the 2000–2025 period. The three main drivers of depopulation are aging, international migration, and high mortality and morbidity rates. Depopulation presents a range of challenges including labor shortages, weaker consumer demand, lower tax revenue and higher health care costs as the greying population lives longer.

Editor Note: Additional impacts to the above are a massive transfer of wealth from the baby boomers to their children. Of course this wealth is only of value if the economic and social structures continue to exist to support them.

Evolving Artificial Intelligence

Adapted from A.T. Kearney 2015: Artificial intelligence (AI) is already used in sectors as distinct as finance, journalism, and engineering, and it continues to find new applications. For instance, AI is used in security trading dark pools, writes breaking news articles, and dominates humans in many games (such as chess, backgammon, Scrabble, and even Jeopardy!). It is also being leveraged in an attempt to cure cancer (as part of the Big Mechanism project being run by the Pentagon’s Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency [DARPA]) and make lethal decisions on the battlefield through its integration into the weapons systems of several countries. Increasing investment in deep learning technologies will enable AI to expand to even more sectors.

Editor Note: This topic has been explored in detail both in the business press and in fiction (anyone remember HAL from the movie 2001: A Space Odyssey?).

Geopolitical Realignment and Continued Global Violent Extremism

Adapted from A.T. Kearney 2015: Global economic and political power is increasingly diffuse thus complicating leadership efforts within the international system. In the years since the Global Financial Crisis, the United States and other Western powers have receded from the global stage while rising regional powers have increased their political influence. These changing power dynamics are decreasing the effectiveness of global political institutions. These institutions have transformed little in the past 60+ years and are failing to accommodate shifting power dynamics. Global arms spending, has grown in recent years after decades of decline following the conclusion of the Cold War.

Today’s most pressing issues, including security concerns, are global in nature but cooperation has proved increasingly difficult in the current international environment. The international security architecture has been slow to address global terrorism and transnational organized crime. Moreover, lack of trust in governments and businesses complicates international efforts to prevent cyber threats.

Editor Note: Canada has been a direct participant and beneficiary in the international movements of the second half of the 20th century. From being a founding member of the United Nations and NATO to conceiving the concept of peace keepers, Canada has been described as ‘punch above its weight’ in international affairs.

Day 2: Power, Cyber-Security and Renewables

Posted on November 13, 2017 by Frank SAPAA

This is the second list of potential disruptive factors that could influence the Canadian Public Service over the next decade or so. See the previous blog for the first set of three and Seven Days of Disruption blog for the entire set. These are in support of November 22, 2017 FMI Conference – Disruptive Writers.

Changing Nature of Power (2015)
Cyber Insecurity (2015)
Dawning of a new urban transportation age and the Canadian City (2017 and editor)

Changing Nature of Power (2015)

Adapted from A.T. Kearney 2015: In today’s world, power is increasingly fleeting and diffuse. It is disseminated across individuals empowered by new technologies such as search engines and social media; to lower levels of government, including cities; and to start-ups and user-driven networked organizations. The rise of the global middle class is leading to greater individualism and expectations for service from their governments and from businesses, with consumers having never had a broader freedom of choice. Global trust in most institutions reached an all-time low in 2015, with governments continuing to be the least-trusted institution.

Editor note: So What? The answer is that trust is foundation of a society and an economy. It profoundly reduces the transaction cost in both. Public institutions support this trust by enforcing social norms. In a strange twist, public institutions are sometimes powerless at the hands of a small but vocal group of individuals.

For example, an August 2017 discussion on free speech at Ryerson University was cancelled because the University was concerned about safety and security. Described as domestic terrorism by one of the panelists, this is an example of public institution (Ryerson) self-censuring thought and discussion with a resulting degradation of its own power and trust. While the individuals involved may congratulate themselves on forcing their view points onto an entire institution, they should also recognize that they are sharing a common heritage with the black, brown or red shirts who dominated politics a century ago.

Cyber Insecurity (2015)

Adapted from A.T. Kearney 2015:While the upside of the Internet is enormous, cyber threats continue to multiply. Estimates put global cyber crime losses at somewhere between $375 billion and $575 billion annually. All connected devices and systems are vulnerable to attack. Computer systems, for example, are vulnerable to ransomware. The growing IoT also lacks strong security systems and is highly vulnerable to data theft. To make matters more complex, the cyber arena is a growing domain of warfare between countries, in which businesses can be caught in the crossfire. The “Darknet”—parts of the “Deep Web” that are not discoverable by traditional search engines—remains a serious criminal threat, especially with the rise of crypto-currencies. It is cloaked with encryption software that provides anonymity to users. The Darknet is used as a source of cyber attacks, as well as a place to buy and sell ransomware and other cyber weapons. Another business risk of the Darknet is that it provides a marketplace for stolen data collected through cyber attacks, augmenting hackers’ motivation to continue conducting such attacks.

Editor note: Governments see online services as a way to provide better government for fewer resources. The Singapore, Scandinavia and the United Kingdom are acknowledged leaders in this effort although the Canada Revenue Agency has also made great strides in allowing for a digital experience. Nevertheless, governments have a number of challenges including the Facebook-effect, the Shiny-bauble problem and resource asymmetry.

Facebook Effect – You are the Product

The Facebook-effect is the problem of comparing government services to a for profit service such as Facebook. If Facebook can provide service xyz or make its offerings free, why can’t a government? There are of course a number of answers to this. Firstly Facebook is not constrained by the same legal, moral and democratic frameworks. Facebook has an entirely different revenue model. For social media, the user is the product. Thus your likes, shares and contributions builds up a profile of you as a person which can then be monetized. For governments such monetization of a citizen would be outrageous. Finally, Facebook can fail while governments are expected to be enduring. If Facebook ceased to exist tomorrow it would be inconvenient but a new social media product would take its place (anyone still using MySpace?).

The Shiny-Bauble Problem

Governments like to implement new things. Ribbon cutting and shovel turning is good press and leads to the primary objective of any government – staying in power. As a result, governments get distracted by the Shiny-Bauble which have a short-term effect or solution that has little enduring value and may cause long-term harm to a society. The worst thing about Shiny-Baubles is that they may become entrenched in a society by a small group who benefit from the government largess. In other words, the only thing worst than a Shiny-Bauble is trying to turn one-off.

Resource Asymmetry

Governments often have fewer and less enabled resources to delivery digital services or fight cyber-threats than the legitimate and illegitimate competitors. The above Facebook discussion is one aspect of this resource asymmetry and consuming valuable government resources pursuing a Shiny-Bauble is another. A darker example of asymmetry is that the bad guys only need to look for and exploit a single weakness in a government’s cyber environment. At the same time, a government must fight all threats while trying to provide services.

Dawning of a new urban transportation age and age of renewables (2017 and editor)

Adapted from A.T. Kearney 2015: The global urban population has risen steadily over the past two decades. According to the United Nations (UN), there were about 2.9 billion urbanites in 2000, but that number has increased to 4.1 billion and will hit 4.5 billion in 2022. The number of megacities, defined as cities with 10 million or more inhabitants, rose from just 17 in 2000 to 29 in 2015, and the total is projected to rise to 36 by 2025. Hyper-urbanization is heightening congestion levels in cities around the world. The age of the automobile may be ending as cities adopt innovative new technologies and use more traditional mass and individual transit methods to enable smarter and more sustainable urban transportation and growth.

(Editor) Public transit and electric vehicles are two ways that urbanization will change the face of a city but tele-commuting and promoting walk/bike-able cities are another. This raises a challenge for Canadians as much of our housing stock has been built since the mid-20th century and the economics and logistics for all of these mitigating solutions will require significant government investment and coordination. It will also require a change in cultural norms and expectations as owing a home has become central to financial and personal-security well-being.

Day 1: Climate, Biotech and Canadian Competitiveness

Posted on November 12, 2017 by Frank SAPAA

What are some of the larger potential disruptive factors that could influence the Canadian Public Service over the next decade or less. The following three are the first in a list that will be used at the November 22, 2017 FMI Conference – Disruptive Writers.

Seven Days of Disruption (Initial Blog).
Accelerating Global Climate Change and the cost to mitigate (2015 and editor)
Biotechnology: Frankenstein, Super-bugs and Super-cures (adapted from 2016 and editor)
Canadian Competitiveness and Productivity (editor)

Accelerating Global Climate Change and the Cost to Mitigate

Adapted from A.T. Kearney 2015: Food production, rising sea levels, increased range of tropical diseases and impacts to fragile environments such as the arctic and northern forests are some of the negative impacts identified. At the same time, Canada could be a net beneficiary as more of its land mass becomes suitable for agriculture and lower cost for exploration of mineral wealth in the arctic. These are tenuous gains as compared to social and mass population upheavals however.

Editor note: in many ways the past 200+ years of using fossil fuels can be compared to a young person inheriting a vast fortune from an unknown dead relative. The changes have been both negative and positive.

On the positive side, there are billions of people alive today or who have lived in the past two centuries that would not have lived without the exploitation of fossil fuels. Fossil fuels have given us a standard of living in which even the poorest Canadian is living better than many past kings or queens. Hydrocarbons deliver clean water, warm homes, take away sewage, pave our streets, move food to our stores, fix nitrogen out of the air to grow the food and give us miracle materials such as plastics.

However, like a young adult waking up from a massive party we are also noticing that the trust fund is running low. As well, 200+ years of living with fossil fuels has directly or indirectly killed many of our fellow species, polluted our homes. The hunt for the fuels have led to corruption and creating vast fortunes in societies that have exported extremism and intolerance of things like women’s rights.

The cost to leave the fossil fuel era is considerable and may not occur in our lifetime. The reality is that the engineering and technologies to replace an energy dense and convenient storage medium such as gasoline is considerable. Canada has committed to shutter its coal power plants. In 2014 this represented approximately 10% of the nation’s total generation nearly all in Western Canada [1]. Assuming these plants are closed by the target date of 2030, 63.6 terrawatt hours of capacity will need to be replaced [2]. Globally, Canada’s coal generation represents 0.67% of the total world generation capacity [3]. Thus the cost of leaving fossil fuels in the ground are not only direct but indirect as we place ourselves at a competitive disadvantage despite being a global powerhouse in energy reserves.

Biotechnology

Adapted from A.T. Kearney 2016: Just four years after its invention, “copy-and-paste” biotechnology is bending the cost and timeline curves for major scientific breakthroughs. CRISPR-Cas9—which stands for “clustered, regularly interspaced short palindromic repeats” and “CRISPR-associated protein number nine”—was discovered in 2012. This biotechnology has the ability to delete, repair, or replace genes, making it a function for genetic manipulation that will allow researchers to do three things more cheaply and effectively than ever before: alter human genetic code, cure diseases, and even create new lifeforms. Its applications will have far-reaching impacts on a multitude of industries, altering business models, regulatory environments, and consumer demands and preferences worldwide.

Editor’s Note: Bio-technology is one of the things that makes us human even if the technology part has advanced considerably. 10,000 years ago the methods would have included burning forests to plant crops or encourage grazing animals; selecting grains such as wheat, rye or rice; or domesticating the dog, horse or cow.

More recently state sponsored food research was central to of the green revolution of the late 20th century. Genetically modified food has continued this revolution although with a sense of unease. Bio-technology promises designer cures for diseases and an improved standard of living for humanity. The shadow includes Frankenfoods, designer babies and other nightmares from science fiction. Regulation and a stable civil society is one way to control this. Another method is to ensure that the work is done in a culture of openness and transparency – something perhaps more difficult if the research leaves Western countries and is taken up in repressive regimes or nations lacking a history of civil discussion.

Canadian Competitiveness

Adapted from the Conference Board of Canada: Canada’s standing on the 2017 Global Competitive Index as issued by World Economic Forum improved one place to 14th. Switzerland ranks first, followed by the United States, Singapore, the Netherlands, and Germany. Taxation and government regulation impeded competitiveness while a good K-12 and post-secondary education systems provided an offset. Canada benefits from efficient labour markets and a sound financial and securities systems. Canada lacks consistent investment in research and development, has degrading public infrastructure, poor coordination between universities and business and an over-reliance on natural resources.

Editors Note: This subject was discussed at the September 21, 2016 FMI Edmonton Chapter event Fostering Innovation in the Public Service When Money is Tight.

[1] Adapted from Canada Coal Profile, Figure 6 and Table 1, accessed 2017-11-13; https://www.iea.org/ciab/papers/Canada.pdf.

[2] ibid Power generation (gross) in TWh in 2014.

[3] Key World Energy Statistics, Electricity Generation by source, accessed 2017-11-13; http://www.iea.org/publications/freepublications/publication/KeyWorld2017.pdf

Must Read Books

Posted on November 4, 2017 by Frank SAPAA

In 2015 there were a little more than 17,000 Business/Economics books published in the United States out of a total of 256,000 [1]. Assuming business and economic books were evenly divided between them – that is 8,500 for each category.

You could have kept up with all the new books published… assuming you read one per hour and did not bother sleeping for that year! In other words, there are a lot of books to read, where to start?

Trust Me – Call a Friend

Most people accept recommendations from trusted sources such as a friend or colleague. Others watch for suggestions in trusted magazines or online blogs. Others trust the book seller (e.g. Chapters, Audreys or Amazon) for their recommendation.

The common thread in all of the above is ‘Trust’. We trust our network (immediate or otherwise) to filter out and find the few gems worth reading.

Disruptive Writers and Crowd Sourcing Must Reads

This brings me to an interesting exercise at the next FMI – Edmonton Chapter Event, ‘Must-Reads’. We are asking attendees, speakers and individual in the know for ‘about 3’ book recommendations. In effect we are crowd sourcing how to spend our precious reading time.

The results so far? 23+ recommendations with more coming in all of the time. If you are interested in what these reads are, be sure to download the pre-conference notes. Even better, join us in Edmonton on November 22, 2017 to learn more about these Must Reads!

Some Key Links:

Register for the event (closes 2017-11-17).
Download Pre-conference notes.
Contribute a Must-Read Book.

The Hot and Cold Book Categories of 2015, Publishers Weekly. Access 2017-10-30.

Driving MS Daisy – Rough Notes

Posted on July 3, 2017 by Frank SAPAA

Don’t read this blog. It is here really to provide me with some notes on an idea. Better yet, read the next Bog – Driving MS Daisy 2018.

Does anyone have a circa 1995 crew cab pick up truck in good working order that I can borrow for the weekend of June 9 and 10, 2018? Even better, can I keep it, write on it with indelible markers and then auction it off for a good cause? Read on for what I am thinking.

A Little Context Please

Canada has the highest rate of multiple sclerosis (MS) in the world, with an estimated 1 in 340 Canadians living with the disease. While it is most often diagnosed in young adults aged 15 to 40, younger children and older adults are also diagnosed with the disease (source, MS Society). Each June the Alberta Chapter runs the Leduc to Camrose ride over two days and about 150km. This ride fits neatly into two of my interests, public service and cycling.

For a few years I have had the ability to sit on a tail gate and cheer on the riders (see my reflections, MS Ride 2017). The challenge is that I put 435km on my personal vehicle while transporting folks in a Ford Ranger with a five speed stick.

The WIN-WIN of Driving MS Daisy

I have no problem making this donation to the bike club and the society but it is not something I would want to do on a more permanent basis. Beyond insurance anxiety, I believe a borrowed or donated truck can contribute much more to the MS Society, the ride and cycling; these benefits break into:

Raising Funds/Awareness for MS.
1. Improve contributions and donations to the ride.
2. Use the vehicle as a mechanism to deliver education about MS.
Promotion for the Truck Owner.
1. Loan/give me a truck and I will make it worthy your while… through promotion, etc.
Mitigating Costs/Risks for the Truck Owner.
1. There are inherent costs and risks with loaning out a vehicle. Registration, insurance, cost of the vehicle, and operating costs (e.g. gas).
2. The vehicle will travel about 400 – 500km over the weekend. At the Canada Revenue Agency’s mileage allowance this a cost/value foregone of about $216 to $290.
Details, Details, in order, the ideal vehicle is as follows:
1. Properly Insured for the weekend use and registered.
2. In good working order (e.g. the rescue vehicle will not need a rescue).
3. Pick Up Truck
4. Crew Cab
5. As old as 1984 to 2003; this represents the range when MS is on average diagnosed (34 years old) or typical first onset (15 years old).
6. White with a relatively recent paint job (see below for specifics for each scenario).
7. Willingness to call the truck MS Daisy 2018 which represent a terrible pun on MS, the movie and the year the truck will be used in the ride.

How to Pick MS Daisy

Back to sitting on a tail gate, am looking for a donation of the use of a truck for June 8 -10, 2018 weekend to support the ride. In my minds eye, this could take a few different forms:

Use a Personal Vehicle
Go and Rent a Truck.
Borrow a Company Truck.
Borrow a Car Dealer Truck.
Have a Truck Donated and Then Auction It.

Use a Personal Vehicle

Assuming one has a truck, this is the easiest option but also the one with highest personal risk and costs. Also it has limited opportunity to raise funds or cross promote the ride. Ideally the owner of the vehicle has cleared the weekend with their insurance company. Any insurance and operational costs could be reimbursed by the Society and the individual providing the vehicle may choose to donate-back these amounts to the society. As for risks, particularly for an older vehicle, the owner or driver would need to hope for the best and have their car club card (e.g. AMA) handy.

Go and Rent a Truck

The society already rents vehicles for the ride and presumably adding one more would not cost too much more. The rental agency may even be encouraged to donate the use of the vehicle and operating costs in exchange for promotion and acknowledgement.

The rental agency could even have its staff driving the vehicle to further promote the organization’s support of MS. Unfortunately, with the number of charity events and the demands for similar donations from rental agencies, such a sponsorship arrangement can be a tough sell. Whether a donation or a commercial transaction, this option virtually eliminates the risks of break down, availability and insurance coverage.

Borrow a Company Truck (including one from a Dealer!)

An extension of renting a truck but in this case it is one owned by a corporation who is willing to make it available for the weekend. Borrowing the truck could be part of a larger sponsorship by an organization of the MS ride (e.g. in addition to their team). A truck with company markings already provides some brand recognition although it may be lost to most people. The company providing the vehicle would assure that it is in good working order, insured and of course registered.

Have a Truck Donated and Then Auction It

Picture this, you are on the MS ride and true to form it is raining, you are tired and there is BIG-FRIGGIN’ hill between you and the next rest stop. This hill is about as high as Mount Everest, who builds roads up FRIGGIN’ Mount Everest.

As you stare at this hill that is growing by the minute in height, you cannot even remember why you signed up for this ^#@)!=& ride in the first place. Actually you know why, that cursed wife/husband, girl/boyfriend, co-worker, aunt/uncle, etc. talked you into it. Who the hell cares about MS anyway, you just want to go home.

Giving Everest a Pass for MS

Just as you contemplate that divorce/break-up/new-job/family-estrangement, a white pick up truck pulls in front of you. From it walks a friendly volunteer who talks you down from thoughts of murder/family-job-strife. For example, the volunteer discusses how MS is episodic, there are great days and there are days just like this one that REALLY suck. Like most diseases, it is easy to be over-whelmed and even lash out to those who care for you and are trying to help. The volunteer suggests that you hop in the truck, take a pass on the Mount Everest’esque hill and get driven just a few kilometers to the rest stop.

At the rest stop the volunteer then asks you to do something strange, sign the truck. With a larger marker, you write your name, perhaps including a small note. You notice that you are not the first to sign the truck. Hundreds of people who have been helped by the truck or who have helped create the truck inter-mingle on the hood, fenders and doors of this circa 1995 white truck.

It is then you understand why you signed up for the 2018 ^#@)!=& MS ride. It is because some days, people with MS just need a small rescue and a bit of hope to get to their next rest stop and so they can carry on the next day. Just then your wife/husband, girl/boyfriend, co-worker, aunt/uncle, etc. pulls into the rest stop. All is forgiven… well until the next big FRIGGIN’ hill that is… but that is down the road.

Wanted an Old Truck Called Driving MS Daisy

On June 9 and 10, 2018 I would like to be that volunteer that helps both riders and possibly the a marriage or a relationship. For the weekend it needs to be in a good running condition and reasonable shape. Likely the MS Society will register and insure it and quite frankly when we are done with it, I would then like to auction it off and possibly start again for the 2019 MS ride with a circa 1996 white pick up truck.

I have really no idea if or how I am going to do this so let’s start with a vision of how it could be done.

1. Sponsors and Friends of MS Daisy

To start, this will be a community and collaborative affair. I am looking for a variety of sponsors from getting the truck pro bono, repairing and restoring the truck, applying thank you-decals, driving it (possibly all over Western Canada), writing on it and finally auctioning it off to start fresh.

A Pro Bono Circa 1995 Truck

To start, I need a truck. Ideally I would like to find a circa 1995 white crewcab pick up truck. Perhaps there is a car dealership or broker who has one sitting in their inventory or a great deal comes up on the wholesale auction. In any case, the organization providing the truck would get primary sponsorship space on the truck itself. For example, this may be a 1-2 foot square decal on 3-4 sides of the vehicle not mention the sponsor’s name in press releases, promotional material, etc.

Repair and Restoring the Old Girl

Circa 1995 vehicles typically are showing their age. They have a bit of rust, need mechanical work and generally need to get back into shape. There is a parallel here to MS in which a healthy lifestyle may prevent MS episodes or at least make the episode easier to weather.

In my ideal world, this work would be done by a technical college or even a high school as a class project. Even better, a garage or auto body shop would sponsor and supervise the work restoring MS Daisy 2018. While in the shop she would get a good basic engine overhaul, full mechanical inspection and repair (e.g. brakes, electrical system, suspension, etc.) and possibly new rubber. Cosmetically she will get a paint job, ideally in flat matte white. Why, because it easier to write on of course!

In addition to sponsorship decals, everyone who is involved in buying and restoring MS Daisy will get to sign her. In this way, the MS Society can use MS Daisy as a symbol as how the disease touches the lives of Canadians.

Driving MS Daisy 2018

The intent is drive MS Daisy in the June 9/10 2018 Leduc to Camrose MS Ride. In of itself this would be success. However this is just one of a number of events held in Alberta and Western Canada for MS. As a result, MS Daisy can be used in these other events in the same role – helping riders make it past that one seemingly insurmountable hill.

Beyond MS Events, the MS Society may also wish to loan the vehicle out to other events. For example, MS Daisy can help with the Tour de l’Alberta, the Tour of Alberta or even other rides that meet the MS Society’s goals or that sponsor the society.

Whether on the Leduc to Camrose MS Ride, another MS Ride or on a partnership event, everyone who comes into contact with MS Daisy needs to sign her guest book. The fact that her guest book is her hood, front fenders and doors is part of what makes MS Daisy eccentric and a bit charming. It also builds a tangible link between individuals, the vehicle and the MS brand. In the day in age of instant celebrity and oblivion via social media, this gives those touched by MS Daisy and supporting her (sponsors, volunteers) a tangible touch point to a larger community cause.

Retiring MS Daisy

Every year MS will strike a new group of young people in Canada and every year a new MS Daisy should be found. But what to do with the old one? My suggestion is to make this a very public auction and invite everyone who signed MS Daisy to come and see her go to her new home. To a certain extent, this is the final metaphor for the MS Daisy program. By riding in the MS Ride, we want those who have the disease to go on with their lives in as normal of fashion as possible.

But what about 2019? Ideally a new MS Daisy will be found and the above will start over again. Perhaps as the program gains traction, there may even be a chance to have competition to be the technical college who works on MS Daisy or a bidding war to be the car dealership who found the best MS Daisy.

These are possibilities for the future, in the meantime, does anyone have a circa 1995 white pick up truck? I would like to use it to help someone conquer an Everest’esque hill one June 9 and 10, 2018.

Teaching Gears to Be a Better Manager

Posted on May 14, 2017 by Frank SAPAA

In the Spring I run a weekly program called ‘Wheeleasy Wriders‘ which teaches newbie cyclists how to go from a painful 20KM ride to thinking that a 60KM ride is a breeze. Although this is a hobby, the techniques that I use are directly translatable into a work environment and the reverse as well – Wheeleasy Wriders makes me a better manager – last week is a good example.

How To Explain The Round Gizmos On a Bike

Many new riders are scared of their gears. Although a marvel of engineering, they do require a small investment of time to learn how to use them properly. But using gears effectively is not what this blog is about (however the blogs listed below DO talk about such things). Last week I took a page out of my work environment and did the following:

I broke the riders into groups of three composed of 2-newbies and 1-experienced rider.
I separated married couples into different groups (more on this later).
My request was that each newbie explain to the other newbie how their gears worked on their bike (as if the other explainee-newbie was going borrow the explainer’s bike).
After a couple of minutes they switched roles and the explainer became the explainee.
The experienced rider was there to listen and provide additional information, corrections and encouragement.

Teaching Focuses the Mind

The result was that most of the newbies self-assessed their gear knowledge higher after the explanation than before. Why, for the following reasons:

They had to actively recall past explanations and externalize the content and concepts.
Based on the recall, they had to match the explanations to what they were seeing.
There was a small amount of anxiety to get the explanation right. This anxiety actually helps to better form memories.
Anxiety notwithstanding, the experienced rider represented a safety net.
The experience rider had to compare their own mental-model of how gears work into two different newbie explanations. This conversion strengthen their own understanding of the gears.
I separated the couples because people who know each other very well can have a harder time communicating. They use codes, shortened forms of speech, etc. that takes away from the effort to externalize and codify a complex topic (such as how bike gears work).

Giving Training the Gears

I use similar teaching methods at work when I need to train people. Rather than standing around in a parking lot explaining bike gears, at work this is done through webinars and conference calls. One of my ‘rules’ is that I actively encourage cheating on my exams. Thus, other audience members are encouraged to help the ‘trainer’ out. Because the audience knows they be asked next to provide an explanation, there is better attention and retention for the content. I have learned a few cautions/guidelines though:

Always Build Up: This is not about ridiculing or embarrassing the person. Before asking the question, be reasonably assured the person can answer the question or be guided to the answer. Only use this technique (or select the person) if the person can feel more positive about themselves after they have done the activity.
Be Ready to Move On … QUICKLY: You may discover that you asked a person who simply does not know or is getting flustered by the attention. If so, quickly move on so that person is not social embarrassed. Moving on could include: providing lots of clues, going to someone else or changing the subject.
Gentle Humour Lubricates: use gentle and positive humour to help the situation. Be careful that the humour is not caustic or ridicules the person. A bit of self-depreciation works for me.
Mix Up the Couples: mix and match people who don’t know each other well. This forces different levels of communication effort.
Bit Size the Learning: if possible, focus on only one to two key concepts in each session. More than this will overload the person and create too much anxiety.
Summarize, Crystallize and Repeat the Learning: be sure to repeat the 2-5 key messages from the learning so that the memories can quickly form around these kernels. Memory and learning works best when there are mnemonic devices or conceptual construct to hang the details on.

Good luck with your efforts to train and explain in your organization. Also, if you want to learn more about riding or how to use your gears, be sure to read:

ARM 6 – Power

Posted on April 23, 2017 by Frank SAPAA

The Anti-fragile Risk Management (ARM) Model has seven components; the sixth is Governance.

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